Japanese shares rallied Thursday as the yen extended losses after the country’s new prime minister dampened interest rate hike expectations, while Hong Kong fell for the first time in more than a week after a blistering China-fuelled surge.
Traders remained on edge, however, as they awaited Israel’s response to an Iranian missile attack on Tuesday, which has fanned fears of a regional conflict in the Middle East, pushing oil prices ever higher.
The Nikkei gains, which come after a rollercoaster few days in Tokyo, followed Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba saying the time was not right for further increases in borrowing costs after a meeting with central bankers.
News of Ishiba’s victory in a ruling party vote last Friday — essentially making him premier — sent the yen soaring and stocks plunging at the start of this week, as he had previously spoken of his backing for the Bank of Japan’s policy tightening.
The country’s currency and stocks have since fluctuated, but his remarks late Wednesday appeared to quash the chance of a third hike this year.
“I don’t think we are in the environment for further rate hikes,” Ishiba told reporters after meeting with BoJ boss Kazuo Ueda.
“The economy will continue to develop sustainably while maintaining an easing trend. The economy will continue to move toward ending deflation. That’s the hope I expressed to the governor.”
The BoJ lifted rates in March for the first time in 17 years as it moved away from its long-running ultra-loose monetary policy. A surprise second lift in July sparked turmoil in markets.
Ishiba’s remarks sent the yen tumbling to 147.24 per dollar Thursday, its weakest since August, having sat around 143 the day before. In response, the Nikkei jumped more than two percent as exporters — who benefit from a cheaper currency — rallied.
Still, Stefan Angrick at Moody’s Analytics said he expected the BoJ to hike anyway, possibly this month or in December.
“The Bank of Japan’s latest communication took a very optimistic view of the economy, which suggests that it is still looking to hike,” he told AFP.
“I think Prime Minister Ishiba’s comments scramble the near-term outlook for rates and the yen a bit. They make the economic outlook more uncertain. But I wouldn’t say that they take rate hikes off the table.”
Shares in Hong Kong sank more than three percent on profit-taking in the morning after soaring more than 20 percent since China last Tuesday began unveiling a raft of economy-boosting measures.
However, they staged a strong rally and pared most of those losses in late afternoon exchanges.
Beijing’s stimulus, which has a big focus on supporting the embattled property sector, has renewed interest in Hong Kong and mainland Chinese markets, which had also seen blistering gains before closing for a weeklong holiday on Monday.
“Judging from the turnover in the market, it certainly suggests that the participation has widened quite significantly compared to the beginning of the year,” Jason Lui, head of APAC equity and derivative strategy at BNP Paribas, told AFP.
“I think it’s reasonable to assume that you now have a different investor base coming in to participate in the equity market.”
Most other Asian markets rose, with Sydney, Singapore and Wellington all in the green along with London.
Mumbai, Manila and Jakarta dipped,as did Paris and Frankfurt.
Oil prices rose around one percent as debate swirled around what Israel would do after Iran fired scores of missiles at the country and as it carried out military operations against Tehran-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vowed to make Tehran pay for its “big mistake”, while Iran threatened to hit all Israeli infrastructure if attacked.
Investors were given a tepid lead from Wall Street even after a forecast-beating rise in US private-sector jobs.
The reading came ahead of the closely watched non-farm payrolls figures Friday, which could have a bearing on the Federal Reserve’s thinking on whether or not to cut rates again this month and if so by how much.
– Key figures around 0710 GMT –
Tokyo – Nikkei 225: UP 2.0 percent at 38,552.06 (close)
Hong Kong – Hang Seng Index: DOWN 0.6 percent at 22,302.38
London – FTSE 100: UP 0.3 percent at 8,316.54
Shanghai – Composite: Closed for a holiday
Dollar/yen: UP at 146.86 yen from 146.38 yen on Wednesday
Euro/dollar: DOWN at $1.1041 from $1.1048
Pound/dollar: DOWN at $1.3179 from $1.3266
Euro/pound: UP at 83.78 pence from 83.26 pence
West Texas Intermediate: UP 1.5 percent at $71.13 per barrel
Brent North Sea Crude: UP 1.3 percent at $74.87 per barrel
New York – Dow: UP 0.1 percent at 42,196.52 (close)
dan/smw
