By Stephen Beech via SWNS
More than three-quarters of land on Earth became permanently drier in the last three decades, according to a major new study.
A total of 77.6% of land on the planet experienced drier climates from 1990 to 2020 compared to the previous 30 years, according to the report by the UN Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD).
Over the same period, drylands expanded by about 4.3 million km2 – an area nearly a third larger than India, the world’s seventh-largest country
More than 40% of global land mass (40.6%), excluding Antarctica, is now classified as drylands – up from 37.5% over the last 30 years – despite major floods and storms.
Experts warned that the “existential crisis” redefining life on Earth could affect five billion people by the end of the century.
They say that, if the world fails to curb greenhouse gas emissions, another 3% of the world’s humid areas will become drylands by the end of this century.
In high greenhouse gas emissions scenarios, expanding drylands are forecast across the Midwestern United States, central Mexico, northern Venezuela, north-eastern Brazil, south-eastern Argentina, the entire Mediterranean Region, the Black Sea coast, large parts of southern Africa, and southern Australia.
The report, The Global Threat of Drying Lands: Regional and global aridity trends and future projections, was launched at the 16th conference of UNCCD’s nearly 200 parties in Saudi Arabia (COP16).
Ibrahim Thiaw, UNCCD executive secretary, said: “This analysis finally dispels an uncertainty that has long surrounded global drying trends.
“For the first time, the aridity crisis has been documented with scientific clarity, revealing an existential threat affecting billions around the globe.”
He added: “Unlike droughts – temporary periods of low rainfall – aridity represents a permanent, unrelenting transformation.
“Droughts end. When an area’s climate becomes drier, however, the ability to return to previous conditions is lost.
“The drier climates now affecting vast lands across the globe will not return to how they were and this change is redefining life on Earth.”
The report by UNCCD Science-Policy Interface (SPI) points to human-caused climate change as the primary driver of the shift.
Greenhouse gas emissions from electricity generation, transport, industry and land use change heat the planet and other human activities warm the planet and affect rain levels, evaporation and plant life, creating conditions that increase aridity.
Global aridity index (AI) data track these conditions and reveal widespread change over the decades.
Areas particularly hard-hit by the drying trend include almost all of Europe (95.9% of its land), parts of the western United States, Brazil, parts of Asia, and central Africa.
But less than a quarter of land on Earth (22.4%) experienced wetter conditions, with areas in the central United States, Angola’s Atlantic coast, and parts of southeast Asia showing some gains in moisture.
The report names South Sudan and Tanzania as nations with the largest percentage of land transitioning to drylands, while China as the country experiencing the largest total area shifting from non-drylands into drylands.
As the planet continues to warm, “worst-case scenario” projections in the report suggest up to five billion people could live in drylands by the year 2100.
Experts say forced migration is one of aridity’s most visible consequences.
As land becomes uninhabitable, families and entire communities facing water scarcity and agricultural collapse often have no choice but to abandon their homes, leading to social and political issues worldwide.
UNCCD Chief Scientist Barron Orr said: “For decades, the world’s scientists have signaled that our growing greenhouse gas emissions are behind global warming.
“Now, for the first time, a UN scientific body is warning that burning fossil fuels is causing permanent drying across much of the world, too – with potentially catastrophic impacts affecting access to water that could push people and nature even closer to disastrous tipping points.
“As large tracts of the world’s land become more arid, the consequences of inaction grow increasingly dire and adaptation is no longer optional – it is imperative.”
Nichole Barger, chair of the UNCCD Science-Policy Interface, added: “Without concerted efforts, billions face a future marked by hunger, displacement, and economic decline.
“Yet, by embracing innovative solutions and fostering global solidarity, humanity can rise to meet this challenge.
“The question is not whether we have the tools to respond – it is whether we have the will to act.”
