As the battle for the White House grabbed the limelight Tuesday, an equally nailbiting fight for control of the US Congress was underway that will determine how much of the next president’s agenda gets enacted.
Voters in hundreds of congressional districts were deciding if Democrats or Republicans will hold the gavel in both chambers come January, and whether the incoming leader gets a unified government or bureaucratic deadlock.
The US Capitol is divided into the House of Representatives, where all 435 seats are up for grabs — and a 100-member Senate, which has 34 seats at stake this year.
As with polling in the presidential contest, the congressional election looks close, with Republicans well-positioned to wrest the Senate back from the Democrats but control of the House a toss-up.
Democrats hold a tiny 51-49 advantage in the Senate but Republicans are certain to flip retiring moderate Joe Manchin’s seat in West Virginia, leaving them needing just one more gain to take back the chamber after four years in the minority.
Their top targets are Montana — their next most vulnerable state — Ohio, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan.
Democrats are looking to mitigate losses with gains in Texas and Florida, although these look like less likely flips than the Republican targets.
If Republicans win all of the toss-up races, they’ll have 55 of the 100 seats, giving them huge power to block the Kamala Harris’s domestic policy should she prevail over Donald Trump, and many of her appointments.
“Our final ratings show 52 seats safe, likely or leaning Republican, and 48 seats safe, likely, or leaning Democratic,” the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics said in it final 2024 ratings.
Nonpartisan political finance monitor OpenSecrets reports that $10 billion has been spent on candidates for Congress this time around — a touch less than in 2020 but almost twice as much as the $5.5 billion price tag for the White House races.
While the Senate approves treaties and certain presidential appointments, all bills that raise money must start in the House, where the majority could take days to be decided, with close races expected in New York and California.
The Democrats are in the minority, but overall control looks like a more realistic goal in the lower chamber, where they only need to flip four seats.
“The race for control of the US House remains as close as it’s ever been,” said the Cook Political Report.
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