Spain Set to Encounter Tsunami Within 30 Years

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Last summer, the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission of UNESCO (IOC) dropped sobering news for Spanish coastal residents: Spain’s Mediterranean coast will experience a major tsunami event in the near future.

Scientists are “warning with 100 per cent certainty” that the country will encounter a tsunami measuring at least one meter (3.28 feet) within 30 years. In the event of a tsunami, some coastal residents in Andalucia would have a mere 21-minute warning to find high ground.

Not ‘If,’ but ‘When’

The next disaster will come from the Averroes fault, which lies under the Alboran Sea, halfway between Spain’s Costa del Sol and North Africa. This patch of ocean just inside the Mediterranean Sea is only 50 miles from the Spanish and Moroccan coasts.

The Japanese word “tsunami” may not register as a European phenomenon to some, though the Iberían Peninsula’s seismic history tells a different story. The provinces of Huelva and Cadiz suffered a cataclysmic tsunami event in 1755, killing over 1,200 people in the two regions — 400 in the fishing town of Ayamonte alone.

One of the Worst Tsunamis Ever

The reported 8.4-level earthquake’s epicenter was 200 miles off the Portuguese coast and devastated Portugal, Southwestern Spain, and Morocco. The so-called “Lisbon earthquake” killed 12,000 Lisbon citizens and caused a tsunami that claimed tens of thousands of lives. The surge reached as far inland as Seville.

It ranks as one of the worst tsunamis in history, alongside several others:

The 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami has the highest-recorded death toll, with around 227,899 people killed across 13 countries. Waves on the Indonesian coast reached a reported 167 feet high, and tourist videos depicted haunting scenes of flooding mayhem elsewhere. The Krakatau eruption of 1883 caused multiple tsunamis that slammed into nearby islands, claiming 36,000 lives.In 1868, an 8.5 magnitude Pacific Ocean earthquake formed a double-wave tsunami reaching 50 feet and 90 feet high. The waves hit the Chilean and Peruvian coastlines, killing 25,000 people and leveling the port town of Arica, Chile.Tōhoku in Northern Japan suffered a well-documented earthquake in 2011. The resulting tsunami claimed over 15,000 lives and famously flooded the Fukushima nuclear power plant.

Did a Tsunami Destroy a Civilization?

Historians theorize about tsunamis wiping out the ancient city of Tartessos, the urban center of Andalusia’s former Paleohispanic custodians. Tartessos, a once-thriving culture that traded with the Phoenicians in the first millennium B.C., though it had vanished by the 6th century B.C.

In 2013, the Journal of Archaeological Science published a study modeling the impact of a tsunami on this ancient society. What is thought to be the former Gulf of Tartessos is now the fertile land between the Southwestern Spanish coast and the Guadalquivir Valley near Seville.

An area once engulfed by the last Holocene sea-level rise now yields much of Spain’s agricultural produce, but what lies underneath still fascinates archaeologists.

Researchers used historical data and current topographical features alongside 2D nonlinear hydrodynamic equations to gauge the tsunami’s full effects. Other studies have looked at tsunamis’ sedimentary deposits left in the Huelva Estuary in the Gulf of Cadiz. Evidence shows tsunami activity has affected the landscape several times throughout history.

The Tartessos Heritage of Huelva

Though very few Tartessian cultural artifacts exist, locals in Huelva province still pay tribute to their past in name. Motifs of the now-extinct civilization are on display in Huelva’s provincial capital, Huelva City. Here, streets, buildings, and companies all bear the name of the townsfolk’s ancestors, including its rugby team, Tartessos Rugby Huelva.

Clues about impending disasters started arriving in this corner of Spain within the past few years. In 2023, the city became the first in Spain to erect tsunami evacuation signs across its low-lying quarters. The warnings form parts of the city council’s pioneering “Huelva Tsunami Plan” and the IOC’s global “Tsunami Ready Plan.”

A Precarious Topography

The provincial capital sits on Spain’s Costa de la Luz (“Coast of Light”), flanking the Atlantic side above the Straits of Gibraltar. Huelva’s position may give it a longer evacuation window when the Alboran-born tsunami finally arrives. However, history confirms that it matters little if the tsunami comes from the other direction.

Like many other Costa de la Luz towns, Huelva sits barely above sea level with no immediate high ground. One can only imagine the devastating 20-foot waves that hit the region in 1755.

Becoming ‘Tsunami Ready’

Locals now see signs in critical positions across the city, indicating where to head if a tsunami alert comes. There are two formats: those indicating escape routes and others showing meeting points. Naturally, the visual aids guide residents toward the city’s highest-lying districts.

Leading by example is Chipiona, a town at the other end of the Costa de la Luz. The IOC recently gave the holiday spot near Cadiz “tsunami-ready” status. The beach town of 19,000 residents received the honor in a 2024 ceremony, making it the third place in Europe to do so, following Cannes, France, and Buyukcekmece, Turkey.

Of course, such a destructive scenario is far from most Andalusians’ minds, though one day in the future, nature may repeat itself. This time, the descendants of the Tartessos will be tsunami-ready.

 

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