Europe’s main stock markets were up but pared some gains Thursday as the European Central Bank cut interest rates for the first time since 2019 while warning that inflation would remain sticky.
Wall Street, meanwhile, was mixed at the open, a day after hitting fresh records as leading chip-maker Nvidia’s market capitalisation topped $3 billion.
Paris, Frankfurt and London were all in the green as the ECB lowered its key deposit rate by a quarter point to 3.75 percent, though markets dialled back earlier gains as the bank warned that inflation would remain sticky.
“Any celebrations about today’s 25bp (basis point) rate cut by the ECB are likely to be muted at best,” said Andrew Kenningham, chief Europe economist at Capital Economics.
He said “the decision was fully discounted by financial markets and the most recent inflation and wage data have dampened expectations for a rapid easing cycle.”
“Moreover, the Bank’s forecasts and statements are slightly hawkish,” Kenningham said, using a term used for the policy of raising interest rate.
In an updated forecast, the ECB hiked its inflation forecasts for this year and next. It no longer expects inflation to hit its two-percent target in 2025, as previously expected, but rather to come in at 2.2 percent.
ECB president Christine Lagarde then warned at a press conference that the path of future rate cuts was “very uncertain” and that there would be “bumps on the road”.
The ECB’s accompanying statement “arguably gave less guidance than might have been expected on what comes next”, said Deutsche Bank economist Mark Wall.
“In that sense, the immediate tone is a ‘hawkish cut’. This is not a central bank in a rush to ease policy,” he added.
The ECB began to hike rates to combat inflation in mid-2022, after the US Federal Reserve and Bank of England, but it did not wait for its US and British peers to begin cutting them.
“The ECB has stolen a march on the Bank of England and Federal Reserve –- who are both potentially still a few months away from cutting –- and will breathe life into an economy that desperately needs some form of stimulus,” said Lindsay James, investment strategist at Quilter Investors.
The Fed holds its next policy meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday.
Soft labour data has fanned hopes that the Fed can start to cut US interest rates from their two-decade highs in September.
Investors are now set up for the latest non-farm payrolls report due Friday that should provide a clearer snapshot of the labour market and the world’s biggest economy.
– Key figures around 1600 GMT –
New York – Dow Jones: UP 0.5 at 38,995.09 points
New York – S&P 500: FLAT at 5,353.69
New York – Nasdaq: DOWN 0.3 percent at 17,141.07
London – FTSE 100: UP 0.4 percent at 8,280.34
Paris – CAC 40: UP 0.4 percent at 8,040.42
Frankfurt – DAX: UP 0.4 percent at 18,642.04
EURO STOXX 50: UP 0.6 percent at 5,067.66
Tokyo – Nikkei 225: UP 0.6 percent at 38,703.51 (close)
Hong Kong – Hang Seng Index: UP 0.3 percent at 18,476.80 (close)
Shanghai – Composite: DOWN 0.5 percent at 3,048.79 (close)
Dollar/yen: DOWN at 156.19 yen from 156.12 yen on Wednesday
Euro/dollar: UP at $1.0888 from $1.0873
Pound/dollar: DOWN at $1.2788 from $1.2789
Euro/pound: UP at 85.15 pence from 85.00 pence
West Texas Intermediate: UP 0.6 percent at $74.49 per barrel
Brent North Sea Crude: UP 0.5 percent at $78.77 per barrel
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