Airbnb rentals are linked to soaring crime rates in London, according to a new study.
Researchers found a “positive association” between the number of properties listed as Airbnb rentals and police-reported robberies and violent crimes across thousands of London neighborhoods.
The study, by researchers at Cambridge University and the University of Pennsylvania in the US, suggests that a 10% increase in active Airbnb rentals in the city would correspond to an additional 1,000 robberies per year across London.
Sociologists say the rapid pace at which crime rises in conjunction with new rentals suggests that the link is related more to opportunities for crime, rather than loss of cohesion within communities – although both are likely contributing factors.
Study co-author Dr. Charles Lanfear, from Cambridge’s Institute of Criminology, said: “We tested for the most plausible alternative explanations, from changes in police patrols to tourist hotspots and even football matches.
“Nothing changed the core finding that Airbnb rentals are related to higher crime rates in London neighborhoods.
“While Airbnb offers benefits to tourists and hosts in terms of ease and financial reward, there may be social consequences to turning large swathes of city neighborhoods into hotels with little regulation.”
Founded in 2008, Airbnb now has more than five million property hosts active on the digital platform in some 100,000 cities worldwide.
But concerns that Airbnb is contributing to unaffordable housing costs has led to a backlash among residents of cities, including Barcelona, and calls for greater regulation.
London is one of the most popular Airbnb markets in the world.
An estimated 4.5 million guests stayed in a London Airbnb during the period covered by the study.
Dr. Lanfear and his University of Pennsylvania co-author Professor David Kirk used data from AirDNA: a site that scrapes Airbnb to provide figures, trends and approximate geolocations for the short-term letting market.
They mapped AirDNA data from 13 calendar quarters between 2015 and 2018 onto “Lower Layer Super Output Areas” (LSOAs).
These are designated areas of a few streets containing around 2,000 residents, used primarily for UK census purposes. There are 4,835 LSOAs in London, and all were included in the study.
Crime statistics from the UK Home Office and the Greater London Authority (GLA) for six categories – robbery, burglary, theft, anti-social behavior, any violence, and bodily harm – were then mapped onto LSOAs populated with AirDNA data.
The research team analysed all forms of Airbnb lets, but found the link between active Airbnbs and crime is primarily down to entire properties for rent, rather than spare or shared rooms.
The association between active Airbnb rentals and crime was most significant for robbery and burglary, followed by theft and any violence.
No link was found for anti-social behavior or bodily harm, according to the findings published in the journal Criminology.
On average across London, an additional Airbnb property was associated with a 2% increase in the robbery rate within an LSOA. The association was 1% for thefts, 0.9% for burglaries, and 0.5% for violence.
Dr. Lanfear said: “While the potential criminogenic effect for each Airbnb rental is small, the accumulative effect of dozens in a neighborhood, or tens of thousands across the city, is potentially huge.”
He points out that London had an average of 53,000 active lettings in each calendar quarter of the study period, and an average of 11 lettings per LSOA.
At its most extreme, one neighborhood in Soho, central London, had a high of 318 dedicated Airbnbs – some 30% of all households in the LSOA.
The data models suggest that a 3.2% increase in all types of Airbnb rentals per LSOA would correspond to a 1% increase in robberies city-wide: 325 additional robberies based on the figure of 32,500 recorded robberies in London in 2018.
The research team re-ran their data models excluding all the 259 LSOAs in central London’s Zone One, to see if the association was limited to high tourism areas with many Airbnb listings.
The data models even incorporated the seasonal “ebb and flow” of London tourism.
But nothing changed the overall trends.
The research team also found that when Airbnb listings rise, the effect on crime is more immediate than one caused by a slow erosion of collective efficacy.
Dr. Lanfear said: “Crime seems to go up as soon as Airbnbs appear, and stays elevated for as long as they are active.”
The research team concluded that the trend is likely driven by criminal opportunity.
Dr. Lanfear said: “A single Airbnb rental can create different types of criminal opportunity.
“An Airbnb rental can provide an easy potential victim such as a tourist unfamiliar with the area, or a property that is regularly vacant and so easier to burgle.
“A very temporary occupant may be more likely to cause criminal damage.”
Dr. Lanfear added: “Offenders may learn to return to areas with more Airbnbs to find unguarded targets.
“More dedicated Airbnb properties may mean fewer long-term residents with a personal stake in the area who are willing to report potential criminal activity.”
Airbnb has taken steps to prevent crime, including some background checks as well as requirements for extended bookings on occasions popular for one-night parties, such as New Year’s Eve.
But Kirk said: “The fact that we still find an increase in crime despite Airbnb’s efforts to curtail it reveals the severity of the predicament.”
Dr. Lanfear added: “Short-term letting sites such as Airbnb create incentives for landlords that lead to property speculation, and we can see the effect on urban housing markets.
“We can now see that the expansion of Airbnb may contribute to city crime rates.
“It is not the company or even the property owners who experience the criminogenic side effects of Airbnb, it is the local residents building their lives in the neighborhood.”
Airbnb bosses say an academic report linking rental properties to a spike in crime in London is “misleading” as it only takes into account figures from 2014 to 2018.
The letting giant stated that the Cambridge University-led study provides “no evidence” that the crimes are being caused by Airbnb guests.
And Airbnb says it has introduced policies to reduce any problems.
An Airbnb spokesperson said: “This report is misleading as it fails to account for a general rise in crime rates and seasonal travel peaks in London, which have a far greater impact on crime than the cited, decade-old data.
“Listings rented for more than 90 nights a year on Airbnb account for just 0.17% of homes in London.
“Airbnb creates new income for families, businesses and communities, boosting London’s economy by £1.5 billion last year alone while supporting over 16,800 jobs.”
The spokesperson added that just 0.008% of reservations taking place on Airbnb in London this year resulted in a police request for information.
