By Stephen Beech via SWNS
The world is facing a timber crisis as climate change pushes cropland further north, warns a new study.
Global warming will move and reduce the land suitable for growing food and timber – putting the production of both vital resources into direct competition, say Cambridge University scientists.
If no action is taken to combat climate change a quarter of the world’s forestry land – equivalent to the size of India – will become more suitable for agriculture by the end of the century, according to the new report.
The Cambridge team points out that the once-rare sight of vineyards in Britain is becoming more common as hotter summers create increasingly suitable conditions for growing grapes.
But they say that behind that “success” story is a sobering one: climate change is shifting the regions of the world suitable for growing crops.
The team has uncovered a looming issue: as the land suitable for producing our food moves northwards, it will put a “squeeze” on the land we need to grow trees.
The timber those trees produce is the basis of much of modern life – from paper and cardboard to furniture and buildings.
The Cambridge team says that the increasing competition between land for timber and food production due to climate change has, until now, been overlooked – but it will be an emerging issue as demand for both continues to increase.
Under the worst-case scenario for climate change, where no action is taken to decarbonize society, the new study found that more a quarter of existing forestry land – around 320 million hectares, equivalent to the size of India – will become more suitable for agriculture by the end of the century.
Most forests for timber production are currently in the northern hemisphere in the US, Canada, China and Russia.
The study found that 90% of all current forestry land that will become agriculturally productive by 2100 will be in those four countries.
In particular, tens of millions of hectares of timber-producing land across Russia will become newly suitable for agriculture – more than in the US, Canada and China put together – with conditions becoming favorable for potato, soy, and wheat farming.
Study co-leader Dr. Oscar Morton said: “There’s only a finite area of suitable land on the planet where we can produce food and wood – two critical resources for society.
“As climate change worsens and agriculture is forced to expand northwards, there’s going to be increasing pressure on timber production.”
Co-author Dr. Chris Bousfield said: “We’ve got to be thinking 50 years ahead because if we want timber in the future, we need to be planting it now.
“The trees that will be logged by the end of this century are already in the ground – they’re on much slower cycles than food crops.”
Global food demand is projected to double by 2050 as the population grows and becomes more affluent, according to the report published in the journal Nature Climate Change.
Global wood demand is also expected to double in the same timeframe, largely because it is a low-carbon alternative to concrete and steel for construction.
Shifting timber production deeper into boreal or tropical forests is not a viable option, because the trees in those regions have stood untouched for thousands of years and logging them would release huge amounts of carbon and threaten biodiversity.
Study senior author Professor David Edwards said: “A major environmental risk of increasing competition for land between farming and forestry is that wood production moves into remaining areas of primary forest within the tropics or boreal zones.
“These are the epicenters of remaining global wilderness and untouched tropical forests are the most biodiverse places on Earth. Preventing further expansion is critical.”
The Cambridge team took satellite data showing intensive forestry around the world and overlaid it with predictions of suitable agricultural land for the world’s key crops – including rice, wheat, maize, soy and potato – in the future under various climate change scenarios.
Even in the best-case scenario, where the world meets net-zero targets, the researchers say there will still be “significant” future changes in the regions suitable for timber and crop production.
Timber production currently contributes more than US $1.5 trillion per year to national economies globally.
But heatwaves and wildfires have caused huge recent losses of timber forests around the world.
The Cambridge team says climate change is also driving the spread of pests such as the Bark Beetle, which attacks trees.
Global warming is expected to cause areas in the tropics to become too hot and inhospitable for growing food and make large areas of southern Europe much less suitable for food and wood production.
Dr. Bousfield said: “Climate change is already causing challenges for timber production.
“Now on top of that, there will be this increased pressure from agriculture, creating a perfect storm of problems.”
Dr. Morton added: “Securing our future wood supply might not seem as pressing as securing the food we need to eat and survive.
“But wood is just as integrated within our daily lives and we need to develop strategies to ensure both food and wood security into the future.”
