By Sharin Hussain via SWNS
Some plant species will be “winners” while others will be “losers” as global warming forces them to move uphill, suggests a new study.
Researchers examined the current range of more than 7,000 plant species in Brazil’s Cerrado savanna.
They found that the fate of plant species will depend on where they live: lowland species can move uphill for cooler conditions, but mountain plants have nowhere to go.
Dr. Mateus Silva, of the University of Exeter said: “Every plant and animal species has a ‘geographical range’ – the area where conditions are suitable for it to live.
“As the climate warms, plants’ ranges are shifting, with many species going uphill.
“This is the pattern we found in the Cerrado – suggesting lowland areas may become local extinction hotspots, while mountains will host new combinations of plant species.”
The fate of plant species will depend on where they live as lowland species can move uphill for cooler conditions, but mountain plants have nowhere to go.
The study was carried out by researchers from the universities of Exeter, Campinas, the Royal Botanic Garden Edinburgh and Trinity College Dublin.
The study, published in the journal Diversity and Distributions, found Cerrado is 0.4 percent of the planet’s land surface but is home to 3.5 percent of all flowering plants.
This is approximately 12,000 species – similar to the Brazilian Amazon rainforest.
Researchers used Species Distribution Models to find the kind of conditions each plant species is found in.
Then contrasted this with fine-scale climate data including changes in temperature and rainfall.
The team chose focusing on changes by 2040 to ensure the findings would be useful for current conservation efforts.
The results suggest about 150 plant species face a “critical reduction” by 2040 – losing more than 70% of their range.
Dr. Silva said: “About half of Cerrado plant species will experience a net range loss due to climate change by 2040.
“And more than two thirds, 68 to 73 percent, of the Cerrado landscapes will see a net loss in species numbers.
“Virtually the entire Cerrado area will experience some level of species replacement due to climate change, and this will be most intense in highland areas.
“Meanwhile, lowland areas will have less plant diversity as some species become unable to tolerate the new conditions.”
An additional threat is direct destruction of Cerrado savanna – around half of which has already been cleared to grow crops or graze cattle.
Dr. Silva added: “The range loss highlighted by our study will be compounded by this habitat loss and fragmentation, which makes it harder for species to move to new areas.
“It’s also important to note that our study did not examine interactions between species – this complex ecology is also likely to play an important role.
“At this stage, we wanted to highlight the likely impact of large-scale patterns.
“The Cerrado highland areas reach 700-1,200m above sea level and they provide different conditions from the lowlands, highlighting the need for distinct conservation actions.”
